If Christian McCaffrey isn't NFL MVP, will a running back ever win again? (2024)

If Christian McCaffrey fails to win the NFL's Most Valuable Player award this season, there will never be a running back to win the league's most prestigious individual honor again.

Though the award is supposed to recognize the league's best player, or the most impactful playmaker, the voters have made the MVP a quarterback-only honor that routinely goes to the most prolific passer or the QB of the NFL's top team.

In the 21st century, there have been just four non-quarterback MVP winners, with top runners Marshall Faulk (2000), Shaun Alexander (2005), LaDainian Tomlinson (2006) and Adrian Peterson (2012) claiming the award.

As the centerpieces of their respective offenses, all of them carried the hopes and dreams of the franchise on their backs. The heavy workloads and jaw-dropping production made it easy to hand them the hardware in a league that continued to skew toward a three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust approach.

The NFL's recent shift toward a pass-centric focus has made the game strictly about passers, pass-catchers and pass-rushers. The heralded playmakers outside of those groups must impact the passing game, or the football world dismisses their contributions.

For instance, Derrick Henry has a pair of NFL rushing crowns and a 2,000-yard season on his résumé despite playing with middling quarterbacks, but he has never finished higher than ninth in the MVP race. Though his gold jacket-level production should have warranted more consideration for the league's top honor, particularly with the Titans capturing the division crown in 2020 due to his efforts as a one-man show, Henry's performance barely registered a blip on the radar.

As the league leader in rushing yards and touchdowns, McCaffrey certainly has a case for the award, particularly in a season without a prolific passer. Brock Purdy, Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott are enjoying solid campaigns, but it is unlikely they will surpass the 5,000-yard mark or the 40-touchdown threshold associated with gold-standard performance at the position.

Meanwhile, McCaffrey is the straw that stirs the drink for the most dynamic offense in football. As an RB1/WR2 with explosive skills as a multipurpose threat, the seventh-year pro is deployed like the "Queen" on the chessboard by Kyle Shanahan. The offensive wizard moves CMC around the formation to create and exploit mismatches while opening up the field for a cast of playmakers with take-over-the-game potential.

While Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk are blue-chip players with elite skills, McCaffrey is the focal point of defensive game plans designed to slow down the 49ers' offensive juggernaut. He attracts plus-one boxes when aligned in the backfield and bracket coverage when positioned in the slot or out wide as a quasi-receiver.

The creative shuffling of the All-Pro playmaker has given opponents fits since his arrival. McCaffrey has scored a scrimmage touchdown in 23 of his 25 games with the 49ers, including 20 total touchdowns this season. The veteran has a knack for scoring in various ways as a runner-receiver with an elite burst and wiggle.

However, McCaffrey's impact extends beyond his prolific point-scoring ability as he leads the NFL in rush yards (1,292), scrimmage yards (1,801), scrimmage touchdowns (20), yards after contact (596), receiving yards for a running back (509), 10-plus yard runs (38) and rushing first downs (74).

Those numbers are MVP-caliber on their merit, but look at his impact on the 49ers since his arrival in 2021. The 49ers sport a 21-3 overall record with CMC as a starter, including an 11-3 mark this season. He has transformed the offense into an unstoppable force with his transcendent talents creating headaches for defensive coordinators around the league. In addition, he has helped the 49ers break in a late-round quarterback as an unlikely starter.

That is not a slight to Purdy's success as San Francisco's QB1. The second-year pro has killed it since taking over as the starter in the middle of the 2021 season. Purdy has ascended from his role as a game manager to thrive as a game changer, but McCaffrey's dominance as a multi-faceted playmaker has assisted his efforts.

From the attention he commands as the NFL's leading rusher to his ability to flourish as a pass-catcher on swings, screens and option routes, McCaffrey tips the scales in the 49ers' favor with his presence. By definition, that is precisely what is expected of MVPs in a game in which the star's performance routinely determines outcomes.

While the voters will entertain Purdy, Jackson and Prescott as viable MVPs, the numbers and film suggest that McCaffrey should be a landslide winner in the NFL's top honor race.

Bucky Brooks is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He also breaks down the game for NFL Network and as a cohost of the "Moving the Sticks" podcast. Follow him on Twitter @BuckyBrooks.