MONTREAL, QC — Starting July 1, Philadelphia Flyers forward Travis Konecny will be eligible for a contract extension.
Konecny, a first-round pick by the Flyers in 2015, has one year remaining on his six-year, $33 million contract he signed ahead of the 2019-20 season. Over the last five seasons, the 27-year-old has compiled 276 points in 331 games. Based off his point per-game average, Konecny has scored 68 points per 82 games over the last five seasons.
While formal negotiations have yet to commence, I’ve heard there have been loose discussions between the Flyers and Konecny’s representation at Newport Sports, headed by heavy hitter Pat Morris. As one league executive described to me, Morris (and Newport) will “go for the jugular” in contract negotiations.
To give you an idea as to the kind of demands Newport often seek for from their clients, Vancouver Canucks pending UFA centre Elias Lindholm was asking north of $9 million per season on a new deal to stay with the Calgary Flames, as TFP reported last August. You’d be hard pressed to find objective third parties who think he is worth that type of money.
So, when one person told me that Morris and Co. may be looking for an AAV in the $10 million and up range over an eight-year max term when it comes to Konecny (especially if he enters next season unsigned and picks up his production), it did not shock me in the least. As far as I know to this point, it appears that’s where the ask is starting on the side of the player.
Now, before we hit the panic button, we must remember this is how negotiations work. One side starts a little too high, the other starts a little too low and they find a happy medium. Based on my understanding (and as I’ve previously reported), the Flyers comfort zone is in the $8M-$8.5M range. That may be a touch low, as most league sources I’ve spoken with (and The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz pointed out on Tuesday) have indicated the Timo Meier contract as a direct comparable.
Meier, who was also drafted in 2015, signed an eight-year, $70.4 million contract with the New Jersey Devils that kicked in this season. Per 82 games, Meier has scored approximately 60 points, as of the end of this season. Taking this into account, along with the rising salary cap, it’s only normal that one would assume that Konecny’s AAV will be higher than Meier’s $8.8 million by default.
But the one big difference working against Konecny is when the contract will kick in. Meier was up for a new deal just as he was turning 27; his first three years of the new deal will be played while he is still in his 20s. In Konecny’s case, his new deal will take effect six months following his 28th birthday. There is more of an inherent risk with Konecny’s long-term deal solely based on age.
Then comes the position of which Konecny plays for the Flyers, which is by far their deepest throughout the organization. The Flyers have already transitioned Owen Tippett to left wing full time, while rookie Tyson Foerster spent time on his off wing, as well. Even excluding these two along with Konecny, rookie Bobby Brink and 2021 second-round selection Samu Tuomaala project to have top-9 ceilings in the NHL.
Even as such, Konecny is still the golden goose among all wingers – and forwards as a whole – throughout the organization. This could be argued by Konecny’s camp to drive up the price towards eight figures. That is, of course, until the hottest commodity in town comes overseas.
With rumours swirling around the future of 2023 first-round selection Matvei Michkov and his contractual status in the KHL, there is a possibility that he may be suiting up in a Flyers uniform sooner rather than later. And what do you know, the position of the projected superstar is right wing.
In the event Michkov does enter the fold before Konecny’s contract is resolved, it could work in favour of the Flyers in regard to negotiations.
Theoretically, Michkov will be on the right side of the Flyers’ top line for a decade; locking up too much money in a second line right winger (Konecny) would not seem like good salary allocation. Locking up too much money on the wing is always a concern, and committing eight (or close to) figures to Konecny when he may very well end up being a second line player for you is a cause for concern.
At this juncture, I don’t get the sense that there is any reason to think that this deal won’t eventually get done. Talks seem very cordial to this point, but I also don’t foresee much information being tossed around publicly until things are closer to the finish line. With talks going well to this point, neither side will want to air dirty laundry through the media; there appears to be an agreement to keep discussions mostly private.
If I was a betting man, the magic number here seems to be in the $9 million range. The Meier deal is the benchmark but based on the rising salary cap and Konecny’s overall superior production, a bump in salary is only fair. But due to Konecny’s age, going much higher is not reasonable, as he’ll be 18 months away from 30 years old by the time the new deal kicks in, along with the looming Michkov factor.
